How long can a democracy last without participation? This is no longer a rhetorical question. The answer, unfortunately, is clear: it cannot last. The recent regional elections in Emilia-Romagna and Umbria, with turnouts of 46.42% and 52.13% respectively, mark a further step towards the decline of democratic participation. In the last European elections in June, the turnout in Italy fell below 50 per cent for the first time since 1979. The majority of Italians chose not to vote, a consolidated trend that has led to the loss of around ten million voters in twenty years.

A worrying decline and legitimacy at risk

These data raise questions about the legitimacy of the current political classes. What is the threshold above which the voting process loses credibility? 40%? 30%? Or, formally, can even 5% suffice? While on a technical level everything might hold, on a political and social level it is clear that no, everything cannot ‘go well’. Governments elected by small minorities are bound to be perceived as lacking real representation, triggering a vicious circle that fuels further disaffection. The situation is particularly serious in the South and the islands, where abstention rates are very high. These data reflect deep rifts, not only electoral but also economic, social and cultural, between the different areas of the country. Politics, unable to tackle these divisions, further fuels the gap. The arguments about abstentionism last the space of a morning, but these numbers are the thermometer of the state of health of our democracy.

Abstention European problem

Yet, there are those who play it down, claiming that a ‘mature’ democracy can function even with very low turnouts. Looking at other European countries, we notice similar phenomena: in France, the turnout in the first round of the 2022 parliamentary elections was just 47.5 per cent, while in Poland, despite a higher turnout in the 2023 parliamentary elections (74 per cent), previous rounds recorded rates close to 50 per cent. In Germany, regional elections show diverging trends, with turnouts between 60% and 65%, but a gradual decline compared to previous years. These data show that the participation crisis is a European phenomenon, not just an Italian one, and raises doubts about the capacity of democratic institutions to maintain contact with citizens.

A necessary change of course

The crisis of participation is not just a technical problem, but the sign of a deep malaise. Citizens feel excluded, betrayed by parties incapable of representing them and proposing credible solutions. Politics appears increasingly distant, focused on the preservation of power and not on the construction of a long-term project. The current electoral laws, which do not favour dialogue between voters and elected representatives, further exacerbate the problem, making voting a perceived useless act. If action is not taken now, Italian democracy risks becoming a mere formality. To avoid this, it is necessary to go back to talking to citizens, addressing real problems and proposing concrete solutions. It is not enough to condemn abstentionism: we need structural reforms and a new relationship of trust between politics and society. How long can a democracy last without participation? Time to answer is running out.