In May 2024, a briefly published document by the Russian Ministry of Defence reignited tensions in the Baltic Sea. The proposal, which suggested a unilateral revision of maritime borders in the Gulf of Finland and areas adjacent to Kaliningrad, was withdrawn within hours, but not before generating alarm among the Baltic and Scandinavian countries. Officially justified as a technical correction of old Soviet charts, this move was interpreted by neighbours as an attempt by Russia to destabilise the region and expand its influence in an increasingly hostile geopolitical context.

Despite the withdrawal, the document raised questions about the Kremlin’s real intentions and shed light on a Russian strategy that combines territorial provocations, hybrid warfare and an increasing militarisation of the region.

Kaliningrad and the Suwalki Corridor: the crucial node

At the centre of the tensions is Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania. A strategic bastion for Moscow, Kaliningrad hosts one of the highest military concentrations in Europe, including nuclear capabilities. However, with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, Kaliningrad finds itself in an increasingly precarious position. Surrounded by Atlantic Alliance member states, the region is almost exclusively dependent on the Baltic Sea for supplies and connections to mainland Russia.

Another key point for Moscow is the Suwalki corridor, a strip of land about 100 kilometres long separating Kaliningrad from Belarus, Russia’s only regional ally. This corridor is considered one of the most vulnerable points for NATO: a possible Russian incursion could isolate the Baltic countries from the rest of the Alliance, altering the security balance in the region. Conversely, NATO has intensified exercises along the corridor to emphasise its readiness to defend the area. For Moscow, maintaining pressure on the Suwalki corridor is part of a broader strategy to weaken Alliance cohesion and reassert its presence in the region.

The pressure on Kaliningrad and the Suwalki corridor has increased with the strengthening of coastal defences by Finland and Estonia, which effectively control the Gulf of Finland, a crucial strait for Russian naval routes. Russia, for its part, considers the Baltic a vital area for its national security and cannot afford to lose further ground in a region that is increasingly becoming a ‘NATO lake’.

Hybrid warfare tactics: a new normal in the Baltic

Faced with an increasingly unfavourable strategic position, Moscow has intensified its use of hybrid warfare tactics in the region. These actions, designed to destabilise without provoking direct conflict, include symbolic provocations, threats to critical infrastructure and sabotage.

For example, in recent months, along the maritime borders between Russia and Estonia, several navigation buoys have disappeared, creating confusion and risks for maritime traffic. GPS systems in the surrounding areas have also registered interference, a clear sign of manipulation by Moscow. In parallel, incidents of sabotage of submarine cables and energy infrastructure, such as those affecting the Nord Stream gas pipeline, highlighted the vulnerability of Northern Europe.

A particularly significant incident occurred in November, when a Russian warship fired flares at a German helicopter engaged in a reconnaissance mission in the Baltic. Although no one was injured, the incident was interpreted as a symbolic warning to NATO. Annalena Baerbock, German Foreign Minister, called the incident ‘a clear example of how Russia is testing the limits of our patience’.

The proposal for a joint naval force

In the face of increasing Russian provocations, the Baltic countries are responding with determination. Poland, which has taken a leading role in regional security in recent years, has proposed the creation of a joint naval force between the eight countries bordering the Baltic Sea. This coalition, designed to counter Russian interference, would be tasked with monitoring sea lanes, protecting critical infrastructure and responding quickly to any hybrid threats.

The idea gained support among neighbours, particularly Estonia and Finland, who share a common view of the Russian threat. Sweden, although traditionally reluctant to participate in international military missions, has expressed interest in closer coordination with the Baltic countries.

Geopolitical implications: the Baltic as a new epicentre of tensions

The Baltic Sea, once considered a commercial and cultural crossroads, is now at the centre of a geopolitical dispute between Russia and the West. NATO expansion and the strengthening of European defences have turned the region into one of the most militarised areas in the world, with frequent exercises, naval movements and intense surveillance activity.

Russia, aware of its numerical and technological inferiority to NATO, is trying to exploit every opportunity to destabilise its adversaries. The strategy seems clear: test the cohesion of the Atlantic Alliance, sow divisions among European countries and distract international attention from the conflict in Ukraine.

An uncertain future

Russia’s moves in the Baltic have exposed the fragility of a geopolitical balance that had been relatively stable for decades. Although the response of European countries has so far been cohesive, the region remains extremely vulnerable to further provocations.

The Baltic Sea is destined to remain a field of tension for years to come. Russia, despite its weaknesses, has no intention of abandoning a region it considers essential for its security. For Europe, the task will be to strengthen its defences without falling into the trap of provocation, maintaining unity and showing determination.

The game in the Baltic has just begun, and its consequences could extend far beyond its troubled waters.