Israel, why the truce will hold
Tomorrow, the security cabinet will meet to approve the hostage release and truce agreement in Gaza, which will then be confirmed by the government. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir announced tonight that his party Otzma Yehudit (an extreme right-wing force, ed.) will resign if the agreement is approved (keeping an open door as he says he will not vote for the fall of the government in any case)
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (leader of the National Religious Party – Religious Zionism), on the other hand, is expected to oppose the agreement, but without resigning. And this therefore does not affect the parliamentary hold of the government majority.
If even Smotrich should ‘slip up’ (between the first and second phases of the agreement, i.e. at the 16th of the 42 days over which it is spread), then opposition leader Yair Lapid has already assured the Netanyahu government of a ‘safety net’ to push the agreement through.
The cease-fire should come into effect on Sunday at 12:15pm, and the first three live hostages should be released in the evening (there are rumours of three women, which makes me feel sorry for the little Bibas).
About 1700 Palestinian prisoners will be released from Israeli jails, including about 300 lifers convicted of murderous acts of terrorism. These will be exiled (Turkey, Algeria, Qatar…).
All this, barring some unforeseen Middle Eastern contingency (for example, if perhaps by 12.14pm on Sunday, Hamas launches some missiles or Israel decides to try to eliminate Mohammad Sinwar, facts that could perhaps lead to delays). But the die is cast. The start of the deal will go through, one way or another. Trump did not post on social media funny.
Side effect: the Israeli government enters the post-war phase (ergo: end of cohesion) and the prospect of a government crisis or early elections begins to feel in the air. We shall see.
