With the start of the new presidential term, there are exactly 1461 days until the end of Donald Trump’s presidency. Three years ago 365 days and a leap year of 366. Let’s look at it this way: at the very moment it begins, the second Trump era will also begin its parabola into the sunset.

The experience of governing as an elected leader

Experience suggests that governing as an elected leader is now a thankless task in today’s political and media environment. Global challenges – economic, geopolitical, climate – combine with increasing domestic polarisation to turn the role of head of state and government into a politically vulnerable position, exposed to sentiment and mood swings. It is no coincidence that leaders of other democracies such as the UK, Canada, France and Germany are facing a period of growing unpopularity, marked by protests, economic difficulties and political divisions. Joe Biden, Trump’s predecessor and opponent, has seen his consensus erode with incredible speed.

The first Trump presidency

And this dynamic has already applied to Donald Trump. His first presidency ended in electoral defeat in 2020, a sign that American voters have already grown tired of him once. During his first term, Trump struggled to deliver on many of his key promises, from the wall on the border with Mexico, only marginally built but far from being completed, to health care reform that never took shape, to the disastrous handling of the Covid emergency.

The challenges of the second term

Now back in the White House, Trump is once again faced with the challenge of turning simple campaign slogans into effective policies, an effort that had already shown its limits during his first term. As is often the case with populists, the promises made during the rallies – cutting taxes, ‘draining the swamp’ in Washington, protecting American workers, deporting millions of illegal immigrants – had clashed with the complexity of the government machine, the global dynamics, the intricacies of parliamentary politics.

Internal frictions in Congress

The latter has already begun to be perceived. In Ancient Rome it was said ‘Senatores boni viri, Senatus mala bestia‘: taken individually, today the Republican representatives and senators applaud Trump as the sole and inevitable leader of their party, but the frictions between the tycoon and the Republican majority in Congress have already emerged before the new term began. Trump tried to directly influence the choice of House speaker, but in a secret vote the Republican senators rejected his recommendation and chose an alternative candidate. Trump’s plan for targeted tax cuts for the wealthiest and for radical anti-immigration measures met with opposition from more moderate Republican congressmen. Moreover, his spending bill, also supported by Elon Musk, was rejected by 38 Republican congressmen, bringing the US closer to the risk of a government shutdown. A further bone of contention was Trump’s order to block aid to Ukraine as leverage for concessions on immigration issues. This strategy has created dissension within the party, with some Republicans preferring a more traditional, bipartisan approach to foreign policy.

Populism and difficulties in government

Trump’s strength as a candidate has always been his ability to speak directly to the sentiments of his electoral base. Slogans like Make America Great Again and America First have galvanised millions of voters, offering simple, reassuring answers in a world perceived as increasingly complex and hostile. However, governing requires compromise, negotiation and a long-term strategic vision – all qualities that are ill-suited to populism.

The international landscape: a changing world

Trump now finds himself in an even more complicated position than before. The international landscape has changed, with an increasingly assertive China, a Europe seeking to emancipate itself from American influence, and new crises requiring global leadership. There are two ongoing wars, in which America is inevitably involved, and others that will require a presence or engagement of the world’s leading power. Internal polarisation in the United States has not diminished, and indeed is likely to worsen under a second Trump term, just as the gaps between the increasingly wealthy and the working classes less able and equipped to cope with raging technological change are also growing in America.

Trump’s legacy

The real question, for a president who is not up for re-election (we may see miraculous attempts to change the rules, but America is not Russia), is what will be the legacy of his presidency. Will there be a Trumpism after Trump? How will JD Vance fare in these years, the young vice-president clearly being a potential candidate for succession? Will the idyllic relationship between Trump and Musk endure, or will the ill-feeling of so many in the MAGA movement for Elon contribute to souring the axis between two already complex personalities?

A lesson for Europe

There are no certainties, except one. Each passing day inevitably brings closer the moment when Trump will no longer be president. For us Europeans, this should be the main warning: we cannot and must not depend on the variables and uncertainties overseas, on the moods of American voters, on the political agendas of Trump, Vance, Musk, Rubio or the Democrats who will try to rebuild their initiative. We reject an almost millenarian narrative that wants to see Trumpism almost as an immanent force to be surrendered to and given the opportunity to dismantle the European Union.

Trump is not a bluff; he says what he wants to do, raises the stakes, and seeks the most advantageous compromise possible. His transactional logic is well-known and effective, but it must always be viewed for what it is—a perpetual negotiation. Therefore, we Europeans must learn to negotiate constantly as well, but by also raising the stakes on our side and positioning ourselves from a position of strength (for example, by fully investing in our own autonomous defense).

From today begins the end of the Trump presidency.