The fall of Bashar al-Assad‘s regime in December 2024 marks a turning point in Syria’s history. After more than five decades of authoritarian rule by the Assad family, the country finds itself in a transition phase fraught with challenges. The end of the armed conflict does not coincide with peace: Syria will have to deal with issues such as power management, reconstruction and the role of regional and international actors.

What happened in Syria

The flight of Bashar al-Assad and the collapse of his regime were the result of a long civil war that began in 2011. The final rebel offensive led to the control of the capital Damascus and major institutions. The fall of Assad also marks the collapse of a regime that ruled Syria with repression and military control.

Weakened by international sanctions and the loss of strategic support, the regime quickly succumbed. The images of Assad’s escape and popular jubilation symbolise the end of an era and the beginning of a new phase.

The rebel group that seized power

After the fall of Assad, a rebel group led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) emerged as the dominant force. HTS, originally affiliated with the al-Nusra Front, has tried in recent years to assume a more pragmatic and political role.

Under the leadership of Abu Mohammad al-Julani, HTS has promised a gradual transition and a government of national unity. However, its militarised structure and extremist past raise questions about future governance. The appointed prime minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, has promised reforms and diplomatic openness, but the consolidation of power will be a delicate process.

What is expected now: future scenarios

The future of Syria will depend on:

• Political transition: Uniting the different ethnic and religious communities will be crucial for the stability of the country. The main Syrian communities include Sunnis, Alawites, Christians, Druze, Kurds, Assyrians, Turkmen and Armenians. Building a federal structure could prove complicated without the consensus of the various factions.
• Reconstruction: Infrastructure is devastated and about 90 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line. Reconstruction will require huge investments, but will be difficult without a stable government.
• Internal security: The presence of extremist groups poses a threat to stability. The possibility of new factional conflicts cannot be ruled out.
• Refugees: The return of millions of refugees scattered between Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan will be a humanitarian and political priority.

Turkey’s role

Turkey played a central role during the conflict and in the aftermath of Assad’s fall. From the beginning, Ankara supported the opposition to the regime with an involvement that significantly influenced the course of events.

Rebel support

Turkey supported theFree Syrian Army (FSA) and other rebel militias, providing supplies and logistical support. This kept pressure on the regime high and created an area of Turkish influence in northern Syria.

Direct Military Interventions

Ankara conducted operations such as ‘Olive Branch’ (2018) and ‘Peace Spring’ (2019) to combat ISIS and prevent Kurdish autonomy, which is considered a threat to Turkish national security.

Diplomacy and post-Assad management

Turkey participated in the Astana negotiations and other diplomatic formats. It now focuses on managing the consequences of the conflict, securing its borders and influencing the new Syrian governance.

Russia and Iran, the big losers

The fall of Assad was a major blow for Russia and Iran, the Syrian regime’s main allies. Both had invested enormous resources to support the Damascus government, but now find themselves with reduced influence.

Russia: loss of strategic influence

With the fall of the regime, Moscow risks losing its privileged status in Syria. Russia’s internal situation, aggravated by its involvement in the Ukrainian conflict, further limits its ability to manoeuvre.

Iran: end of the axis of resistance

Iran loses a key piece of its regional strategy. The possibility of the new Syrian government reducing its dependence on Tehran is a setback for Iranian ambitions in the Middle East.

Israel and Saudi Arabia: ‘special observers’.

Israel: Caution and Prevention

Israel is closely watching the situation, concerned about the security of its borders and the risk of new jihadist threats. The fall of Assad could, however, open up new diplomatic opportunities in the region.

Saudi Arabia: commitment to stability

Saudi Arabia has taken an active diplomatic role, trying to ensure a peaceful transition and prevent chaos. The kingdom emphasises the importance of preserving the rights of minorities and avoiding new violence.

Conclusions

The fall of Bashar al-Assad opens a new and uncertain chapter for Syria. Between reconstruction, political challenges and regional rivalries, the country will face a complex path to stability. Regional actors such as Turkey, Israel and Saudi Arabia will be decisive in defining the future of the country and in preventing the wounds of war from fuelling new conflicts.