With Donald Trump‘s inauguration just days away, the US Democratic Party finds itself in deep crisis, seen as detached from reality and far from the demands and sentiment of the country. It will be important for them to be able to find the right balance from a communicative and political point of view in order to be competitive again even at the state and local level, starting from the idea that only with a better political offer will the Dems be able to win again, given that all of Donald Trump’s judicial vicissitudes are not limiting his support among voters.

Let’s start by talking about Congress

Trump has a majority in both chambers (although in the House the resignation of Matt Gaetz and the appointment of a number of MPs to ministerial positions will guarantee a very slim majority for the Republicans at least for a few months) and the defeat also in the popular vote has put the Democratic Party in an extremely complex position in which they will find themselves essentially unable to pursue a strong and concrete opposition in parliament at least until 2026.

The impression of more and more analysts

The impression of more and more analysts and political figures converges on one theme: the Democratic Party has become almost to be shunned, and there are more and more election campaigns in which party members are distancing themselves from the national political line in order to have a better chance of election. One thinks of representatives like Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who in November won for the second consecutive time in a historically red district in Washington State, where a Democratic presidential candidate has not won since 2008 and which had not elected a Dem MP since 2011.

A significant example

Gluesenkamp Perez, considered the most at-risk Dem MP, managed to overturn the expectations of her detractors by even widening the margin of her victory over 2022. According to her, however, her victory stemmed from her ability not to make the electoral campaign a reflection of the national one, and indeed trying to distance herself from it as much as possible, concentrating on the very strong relationship formed with the territory and the ability to listen to and act on the needs of her voters.

The case of Mike Duggan

Another important case concerns Mike Duggan, mayor of Detroit since 2014 and a 40-year member of the Democratic Party, who has announced that he will run for Governor of Michigan as an independent in 2026, emphasising that in his opinion the country is tired of the two-party system and that only by running as an independent can one govern for the good of the people. In all likelihood, the move is functional to avoid the turbulent Democratic primary (which will probably also see Pete Buttigieg, now former Secretary of Transportation in the Biden administration, as a participant) and to be attractive to Republican voters who might appreciate the figure of Duggan, who a few days ago announced a big drop in murders, shootings and car robberies in Detroit, but who would probably not vote for him as the Democratic Party’s candidate.

The case of Florida

Others have decided directly to opt out of the Democratic party towards their Republican opponents: this is the case of two Florida state congresswomen, Susan Valdes and Hillary Cassell. The former decided to leave the party because she was ‘tired of being in the party of protest‘, while Cassell cited ‘the failure of the Democratic party to unequivocally support Israel‘ and ‘the party’s inability to succeed in speaking to the people of Florida‘.

Republican dominance in Florida

These two defections, which bring the Republican majority in the state House to 86 against 34, certify the GOP’s absolute dominance in a state that had decided the 2000 election by a handful of votes, won in 2012 by Obama, and instead saw Trump win by 13 points in 2024, signalling a profound crisis that will necessarily have to be resolved as soon as possible, because if the Democrats want to become competitive again and elect presidents, they will necessarily have to work on a state that elects 30 big voters and is composed of 40% Hispanics and African-Americans, historical Democratic targets that in the last elections have, however, moved towards Trump.

The need for restructuring

It is clear that the Dems are in deep crisis, with a leadership that needs to be rebuilt and a serious restructuring that will necessarily have to begin with an awareness: it will be necessary to start from scratch. The party’s restoration will have to start with a thorough postmortem, similar to the one undertaken by the Republicans in 2012 after Mitt Romney’s defeat against Barack Obama (the results of which will be completely discarded by the advent of Donald Trump in 2016), which will be able to identify the right correctives for those policies that have alienated the historic Dem voters, from the white working class to the Hispanic and African-American minorities.

The Third Way report

On this topic, the centrist think-tank Third Way published an interesting report that attempts to answer some of these important questions. Indeed, their polls revealed that voters trusted Trump and the Republicans much more on immigration, crime, the cost of living and even, paradoxically, on the issue of the health of democracy (50% trust Trump more versus 49% for Kamala Harris). Moreover, 60% of the voters surveyed claimed that Kamala Harris in their eyes did not represent real change as much as a continuation of Joe Biden’s tenure and policies.

Moving to the centre

The most important point of the report concerns the interviews conducted regarding the future of the Democratic Party and the way forward: when faced with two possible policy proposals on an issue, one more centrist and one more left-leaning, voters agreed more with the more centrist proposal, especially on the issues that have slowed the Dems down the most in the campaign such as crime, the economy and dealing with the climate crisis. The think tank’s indication is clear: the Dems will have to move to the centre to create those grand coalitions that contributed enormously to the election of presidents like Bill Clinton and Joe Biden.

The example of the Laken Riley Act

The Laken Riley Act, sponsored by Republicans but voted for in the House by 48 Democrats and supported in the Senate by Democrats such as John Fetterman and Ruben Gallego, was an opportunity to demonstrate a shift, albeit partial and perhaps still not very indicative, of the Dems towards more centrist positions on immigration. This bill would require the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to detain certain non-US citizens who have been arrested for crimes of theft, burglary, embezzlement or shoplifting.

Kamala Harris and the future of the party

In order to analyse the future of the national Democratic Party, however, it will be necessary to carefully analyse the moves of Kamala Harris. Indeed, the candidate in the last election still enjoys strong internal support, with many insiders believing that her campaign was energetic and positive (74 million votes not just anyone can get), aimed above all at quickly mending the gap that had been created in the polls after Biden’s disastrous performance in the first presidential debate this summer.

The role of other democratic leaders

Moreover, there is no major figure in the party at the moment who can compare to Harris in terms of visibility and notoriety in the country, and this fact could prompt the vice-president to push hard right away to consolidate her figure and begin shaping her eventual candidacy by smoothing out the positions that she has least liked, while maintaining and expanding political relations with Dems across the country. It remains to be seen, however, as some sources report Kamala Harris’s willingness to replace Gavin Newsom as governor of California, with the latter being a potential candidate in the 2028 primaries (although his handling of the Los Angeles fires has subjected him to heavy criticism that could jeopardise his eventual national candidacy) along with many other governors such as Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan (who will have to leave office in 2026) or J.B. Pritzker of Illinois.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we are facing a phase of profound crisis for the Democratic Party, which will face two years of Republican control of the government and the two chambers, with the urgent need to renew itself and regain the trust of an electorate that now seems far removed from its traditional proposals. The growing internal fracture, the defections towards the Republicans and the difficulty of attracting new consensus, especially in key states such as Florida, show that without a serious rebranding and a profound revision of its policies, the party risks remaining marginal in the American political landscape. The search for a balance between a return to centrist positions and the management of the more progressive thrusts will be crucial to building a winning coalition and attracting consensus that will be crucial in defining the shape of American and international politics in the years to come.